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Tower simulation
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C2dric



Joined: 08 Mar 04
Posts: 2


PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2004 3:27 am    Post subject: Tower simulation Reply with quote

The battle tower is so spécific to Wallenstein, that i wonder how this it simulated.

Regards,

Cédric
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milksheikh
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Joined: 24 Sep 03
Posts: 399

Location: Brooklyn, New York, USA

PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2004 12:55 pm    Post subject: Re: Tower simulation Reply with quote

What I do at the moment is use a 30% probability that a cube being dropped in the tower will stay in there, and a 30% probability that a cube in the tower will come out.

I imagine that the real probabilities are somehow dependent on the number of cubes in the tower, and the number of cubes being dropped in (the higher those two numbers are, the less likely a cube being dropped in will stay in the tower, and the more likely a cube in the tower will come out).

I welcome any empirical research, or suggestions of methods/functions, that may simulate the tower better...
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leroy



Joined: 10 Feb 04
Posts: 5


PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2004 9:26 pm    Post subject: tower probability Reply with quote

I was wondering about this as well. I haven't done any calculations but I've seen, first hand, some of the wacky results this thing can have. Maybe you could add some randomly triggered changes in the probabilities, that might simulate the quirkiness of the tower a bit.
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mherms



Joined: 05 May 04
Posts: 1


PostPosted: Mon May 10, 2004 11:01 am    Post subject: Re: Tower simulation Reply with quote

milksheikh wrote:
What I do at the moment is use a 30% probability that a cube being dropped in the tower will stay in there, and a 30% probability that a cube in the tower will come out.

I imagine that the real probabilities are somehow dependent on the number of cubes in the tower, and the number of cubes being dropped in (the higher those two numbers are, the less likely a cube being dropped in will stay in the tower, and the more likely a cube in the tower will come out).

I welcome any empirical research, or suggestions of methods/functions, that may simulate the tower better...


I also wonder if cubes that have been in the tower longer have a higher probability of coming out because they've had more time to get knocked down to the lower tiers of the tower.

Mike
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tloomis



Joined: 02 May 04
Posts: 4

Location: Austin, TX

PostPosted: Sun Jul 11, 2004 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would doubt it. Instead I would assume that cubes that have been in the tower longer are in a position where they are less likely to dislodge.

I think the formula used here works really well though. I would not change it at all.
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fil512



Joined: 16 Sep 04
Posts: 2


PostPosted: Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:09 pm    Post subject: Re: Tower Simulation Reply with quote

There's something I don't understand here.

Looking at the game logs from a few games, it appears that when the tower is first seeded, no peasants come out into the cup. Or if they do, they don't seem to be mentioned anywhere in the game log. Wouldn't these initial peasants in the cup be relevant to the first battle of the game? Probably supporting the defender?

Or am I missing something here.

Ken
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sthrjo



Joined: 13 Nov 04
Posts: 2

Location: Järfälla Sweden

PostPosted: Tue Nov 16, 2004 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When seeding the tower, the cubes that fall out in the cup goes back to the storage. There are no cubes in the cup at first battle.
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TheCat



Joined: 15 Feb 05
Posts: 97


PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2005 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sthrjo wrote:
When seeding the tower, the cubes that fall out in the cup goes back to the storage. There are no cubes in the cup at first battle.


The game log should report how many cubes are returned to storage for each player and for the farmers.
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steve.leach



Joined: 21 Dec 04
Posts: 5


PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are quite right, it should report this info in the game log. Painfully it does not.
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csibadajoz



Joined: 05 Jul 05
Posts: 6


PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

milksheikh wrote:
What I do at the moment is use a 30% probability that a cube being dropped in the tower will stay in there, and a 30% probability that a cube in the tower will come out.


Please milksheikh, would you be a bit more clear explaining this process? I mean, what happens in each with lack30%-over30% in new cube in the tower, and cube already in the tower? Thanks.
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artman



Joined: 28 Jul 05
Posts: 22


PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've only played 2 games of the 'Real Board Game', but this programmed simulator seems to work well (can be painful). I've seen in the 'live' board games some strange outcomes of battles as well.
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benji68



Joined: 03 Oct 05
Posts: 7

Location: Switzerland

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm also wondering about the missing 40%.. did you mean 30%-70% ?

In that case, this simulation leads to the tower filling up. So why not just tying the percentage to the number of cubes in the tower? E.g the percentage for each cube starts at 30% after seeding the tower, and then rises by 2% for each cube above the initial seed in the tower. This would stabilize the number of cubes in the tower... This would still be pretty a pretty simple simulation but would avoid a "full" tower...
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benji68



Joined: 03 Oct 05
Posts: 7

Location: Switzerland

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

.. please disregard my post above. Of course I am wrong about the tower "filling up". But still - maybe the percentage could be tied in a simple way to the number of cubes inside it...
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Xaqery



Joined: 14 Nov 05
Posts: 2


PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2005 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

benji68 wrote:
.. please disregard my post above. Of course I am wrong about the tower "filling up". But still - maybe the percentage could be tied in a simple way to the number of cubes inside it...


pretend there are 100 cubes in the tower and 100 are being put in it from the battle and from the cup. 30 of the old cubes (that were in there already would come out). 30 of the new cubes (those going in now) would stay in the tower and become old cubes and 70 of the new cubes would come out. In this example 100 would go in and 100 would come out.

If it was less perfect say 12 were old and 24 were new. 4 of the old would come out and 16 of the new would come out. So a total of 20 would come out and there would now be 16 remaining in the tower.

hope this helps.

- Dwight
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jiuer7845



Joined: 22 Aug 20
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

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